How business cycle funds are shaking up the game in sectoral investing

Investing is evolving rapidly, with investors increasingly turning to nuanced strategies like business cycle investing, which strategically allocates capital based on different phases of the economic cycle. It targets sectors expected to excel at specific times. Each sector responds uniquely to economic cycles.  

Business cycle funds represent a dynamic shift from traditional sectoral investing by flexibly adjusting portfolios to align with evolving economic trends. This agility allows investors to potentially enhance returns by capitalising on sector-specific growth opportunities.

Capitalising on the cycles

Business cycle funds are a new breed of investment vehicles that allocate capital based on a sector’s current position within the economic cycle. These funds actively analyse where different sectors are in their own cycles and use that knowledge to drive portfolio decisions. This dynamic approach provides two distinct advantages:

1. Early allocation to themes: By getting ahead of the curve, business cycle funds can allocate capital to sectors or industries just before they experience significant growth, leading to substantial wealth creation.
2. Agile investment allocation across market caps: Instead of restricting to large-cap or blue-chip stocks, business cycle funds can deploy capital across small, mid, and large-cap companies, depending on where they see the best opportunities.

Business cycles are not one-size-fits-all; every sector undergoes its own cycle. For example, the technology sector might be in an expansion phase while the energy sector is experiencing a downturn. Business cycle funds take advantage of these nuanced shifts by timing their investments according to each sector’s unique trajectory.

Making sense

There are several reasons why business cycle investing, especially through business cycle funds, is gaining momentum:

1. Greater confidence in forecasts: Unlike forecasting the broader economic cycle, which can be unpredictable due to its dependence on a wide range of factors, sector-specific business cycles tend to be more reliable. Investors can estimate the positioning of various business cycles and their trajectories with higher confidence. It gives business cycle investors a more accurate picture of which sectors are primed for growth and which may be nearing a downturn.
2. Dual benefit of earnings growth and valuation multiple expansion: Investing in businesses in the midst of an upcycle provides investors with a dual benefit. Not only are earnings likely to grow due to improved fundamentals, but valuation multiples also tend to expand. This combination of factors can lead to outsized returns, especially when compared to traditional investing approaches that don’t account for the timing of business cycles.
3. Correlation with valuations: By investing in businesses likely on the cusp or in a favourable business upcycle, investors can take advantage of attractive valuations before the broader market recognises the opportunity. Similarly, businesses entering or are already on a downcycle can be avoided, reducing the risk of being caught in a downturn.

Ahead of the curve

The real edge in business cycle investing comes from being able to identify opportunities ahead of time. It requires expertise, access to reliable lead indicators, and an understanding of recurring patterns in business history.

Investors who can accurately forecast the movements of individual business cycles will find themselves ahead of the competition, able to invest in companies just before they enter their growth phase.

Moreover, this dynamic investment approach isn’t static. It is built on the idea that sector rotation can unlock alpha by continuously repositioning the portfolio based on the stages of various business cycles.

Unlike traditional sectoral investing, which might lock in capital in one sector for an extended period, business cycle investing demands agility and responsiveness to changes in the economic environment.

Conclusion

Business cycle investing and the funds that specialise in it offer a powerful new tool for investors looking to stay ahead of the game. By understanding the nuances of sector-specific cycles and making agile investment decisions, business cycle funds can help investors navigate market volatility and unlock alpha opportunities.

The dynamic nature of this approach ensures that portfolios remain resilient, capturing value as different sectors rise and fall in line with their unique business cycles.

Krishna Makhariya is the CFA – Executive Director and Head of Research at iVentures Capitals.