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How business cycle funds are shaking up the game in sectoral investing
Investing is evolving rapidly, with investors increasingly turning to nuanced strategies like business cycle investing, which strategically allocates capital based on different phases of the economic cycle. It targets sectors expected to excel at specific times. Each sector responds uniquely to economic cycles.
Business cycle funds represent a dynamic shift from traditional sectoral investing by flexibly adjusting portfolios to align with evolving economic trends. This agility allows investors to potentially enhance returns by capitalising on sector-specific growth opportunities.
Capitalising on the cycles
Business cycle funds are a new breed of investment vehicles that allocate capital based on a sector’s current position within the economic cycle. These funds actively analyse where different sectors are in their own cycles and use that knowledge to drive portfolio decisions. This dynamic approach provides two distinct advantages:
- Early allocation to themes: By getting ahead of the curve, business cycle funds can allocate capital to sectors or industries just before they experience significant growth, leading to substantial wealth creation.
- Agile investment allocation across market caps: Instead of restricting to large-cap or blue-chip stocks, business cycle funds can deploy capital across small, mid, and large-cap companies, depending on where they see the best opportunities.
Business cycles are not one-size-fits-all; every sector undergoes its own cycle. For example, the technology sector might be in an expansion phase while the energy sector is experiencing a downturn. Business cycle funds take advantage of these nuanced shifts by timing their investments according to each sector’s unique trajectory.
Making sense
There are several reasons why business cycle investing, especially through business cycle funds, is gaining momentum:
- Greater confidence in forecasts: Unlike forecasting the broader economic cycle, which can be unpredictable due to its dependence on a wide range of factors, sector-specific business cycles tend to be more reliable. Investors can estimate the positioning of various business cycles and their trajectories with higher confidence. It gives business cycle investors a more accurate picture of which sectors are primed for growth and which may be nearing a downturn.
- Dual benefit of earnings growth and valuation multiple expansion: Investing in businesses in the midst of an upcycle provides investors with a dual benefit. Not only are earnings likely to grow due to improved fundamentals, but valuation multiples also tend to expand. This combination of factors can lead to outsized returns, especially when compared to traditional investing approaches that don’t account for the timing of business cycles.
- Correlation with valuations: By investing in businesses likely on the cusp or in a favourable business upcycle, investors can take advantage of attractive valuations before the broader market recognises the opportunity. Similarly, businesses entering or are already on a downcycle can be avoided, reducing the risk of being caught in a downturn.
Ahead of the curve
The real edge in business cycle investing comes from being able to identify opportunities ahead of time. It requires expertise, access to reliable lead indicators, and an understanding of recurring patterns in business history.
Investors who can accurately forecast the movements of individual business cycles will find themselves ahead of the competition, able to invest in companies just before they enter their growth phase.
Moreover, this dynamic investment approach isn’t static. It is built on the idea that sector rotation can unlock alpha by continuously repositioning the portfolio based on the stages of various business cycles.
Unlike traditional sectoral investing, which might lock in capital in one sector for an extended period, business cycle investing demands agility and responsiveness to changes in the economic environment.
Conclusion
Business cycle investing and the funds that specialise in it offer a powerful new tool for investors looking to stay ahead of the game. By understanding the nuances of sector-specific cycles and making agile investment decisions, business cycle funds can help investors navigate market volatility and unlock alpha opportunities.
The dynamic nature of this approach ensures that portfolios remain resilient, capturing value as different sectors rise and fall in line with their unique business cycles.
Krishna Makhariya is the CFA – Executive Director and Head of Research at iVentures Capitals.
(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of YourStory.)
Startup
ED searches 19 premises of Amazon, Flipkart vendors in FEMA probe
The Enforcement Directorate Thursday conducted searches against some of the “main vendors” operating on platforms of ecommerce giants
and as part of a foreign investment “violation” investigation, official sources said.A total of 19 premises of these “preferred” vendors located in Delhi, Gurugram and Panchkula (Haryana), Hyderabad (Telangana), and Bengaluru (Karnataka) were covered as part of the action, the sources said.
It is learnt that the ED inspected documents and took copies of some from the premises of about six such vendors who were not named.
The sources said a probe has been initiated by the federal agency under the provisions of the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) after it received several complaints against the two large ecommerce companies, where it is alleged that they were “violating India’s FDI (foreign direct investment) rules by directly or indirectly influencing the sale price of goods or services and not providing level playing field for all the vendors”.
There was no immediate response from the two ecommerce companies.
Meanwhile, the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) welcomed the ED action.
“The CAIT, along with several other trade bodies, has been raising these issues for the past few years. I welcome the Enforcement Directorate’s actions as a step in the right direction,” CAIT Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal said in a statement.
He claimed that the Competition Commission of India (CCI) had also issued “penalty notices” to Amazon and Flipkart, and their “preferred” sellers, for “engaging” in anti-competitive practices that have adversely affected small traders and ‘kirana’ (grocery) stores.
It has been reported in the past that the CCI, which works to ensure fair business practices across sectors in the marketplace, is already looking into alleged anti-competitive ways of ecommerce companies.
The CAIT and mainline mobile retailers’ association AIMRA had also petitioned the CCI sometime back seeking immediate suspension of operations of Flipkart and Amazon as they alleged that the companies engaged in predatory pricing and were burning cash to offer heavy discounts on products.
These practices, in turn, are creating a grey market of mobile phones, causing losses to the exchequer “as players in the grey market evade taxes”, they had said.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal had recently flagged the same concerns as he had questioned Amazon’s announcement of a $1 billion investment in India, saying the US retailer was not doing any great service to the Indian economy but filling up for the losses it had suffered in the country.
He had said in August that their huge losses in India “smells of predatory pricing”, which is not good for the country as it impacts crores of small retailers.
Goyal said e-commerce companies were eating into the small retailers’ high-value, high-margin products that are the only items through which the mom-and-pop stores survive.
The minister had said that with the fast-growing online retailing in the country, “are we going to cause huge social disruption with this massive growth of ecommerce”.
Khandelwal said that the CAIT has urged the CCI and the ED to protect the businesses of small traders.
“In the new Bharat, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi Ji, no one is above the law. I am hopeful that now the law will take its rightful course and protect the livelihoods of small shopkeepers.
“This government is committed to ensuring that no entity can harm the trading community. In response to multiple complaints filed by the trading community regarding FDI violations and the anti-competitive practices of quick-commerce companies such as Blinkit, Swiggy, and Zepto, we urge both the CCI and the ED to take swift action and prevent any further, irreparable damage to the businesses of small traders,” he said in the statement.
Startup
Irdai proposes to amend regulatory sandbox norms
Regulator Irdai has proposed to amend the norms related to ‘regulatory sandbox’ by incorporating principle-based approach and further facilitating the adoption of innovative ideas and new concepts across the insurance value chain.
Regulatory sandbox usually refers to live testing of new products or services in a controlled/test regulatory environment for which regulators may or may not permit certain relaxations.
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) constituted an internal committee to review the Irdai (Regulatory Sandbox) Regulations.
Based on the recommendations of the committee, it has proposed amendments to the regulatory sandbox regulations and seeks comments from the public at large on the proposed amendments.
Issuing an exposure draft on regulatory sandbox regulations, Irdai said the amendment seeks adoption of principle based approach over rule based approach.
The changes to the norms are also aimed to facilitate the introduction of innovative ideas/new concepts across the insurance value chain, Irdai said.
Irdai has invited comments from the stakeholders on ‘Exposure draft – Irdai (Regulatory Sandbox) (Amendment) Regulations, 2024’ by November 25.
Startup
Prodigy Finance secures $310M financing from DFC
Prodigy Finance, a global higher education finance company, has secured financing of up to $310 million with a funding commitment from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
This latest financing, building on the previous partnership with DFC, prioritises social impact with a minimum financing threshold of 30% for women and 50% for individuals from low- and lower-middle-income countries, it said in a statement.
“Together, we are empowering a new generation of global leaders to unlock opportunities that shape a brighter future,” said Prodigy Finance Chief Financial Officer Neha Sethi.
The higher education finance company’s borderless lending model allows students to apply for loans based on their future earning potential rather than their current circumstances or credit history.
Since its founding in 2007, the international student lender has enabled over 43,000 postgraduate master’s students to attend top universities, disbursing over $2.3 billion in funding to students from more than 150 countries.
Sonal Kapoor, Global Chief Commercial Officer of Prodigy Finance, told YourStory that India is its core market and has the largest share of its funding.
According to the Prodigy Finance 2022 Impact Report, students reported that the company’s loan helped them to pursue their dream career (91%), achieve success in their personal life (83%), and at least double their salary (74%).
In September, Prodigy Finance launched a $30 million blended finance programme in collaboration with The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited and Allan & Gill Gray Philanthropies.
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