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It will be a warm November over most parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its monthly forecast issued Tuesday.
This except Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, some areas in the west and northeast India, where the western disturbances could trigger rainfall or snowfall activities could keep the temperatures under check, this month.
Both the maximum and minimum temperatures over the country are expected to remain on the higher side of normal for most days of November. Such warm conditions may not be particularly good for the upcoming rabi season.
While some southern regions experience the start of winter season, over most other parts of the country, winter onset is realised later. ‘Moderate’ El Nino conditions – the warmer than usual sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific Ocean–continue to prevail.
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“Models suggest that El Nino will last till early March, next year,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said. October, too, had ended up being warmer than usual as very little rainfall was realised over mainland India. The country experienced a 32 per cent rainfall deficit.
There were four low pressure systems developed in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, combined, but these did not largely bring rainfall over the country, the IMD officials said. Two cyclones, Tej and Hamoon, developed in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, during mid-October. Their subsequent movement away from the Indian coasts also had a role in poor rainfall last month.
Besides, there was prolonged prevalence of anticyclonic circulations, which acted as a ridge, the IMD said. As a result, the wind patterns too turned out of favour for any rainfall over most parts of the country, except extreme northern plains, where recent streams of western disturbances caused light rainfall and snowfall. While the Northeast monsoon is turning active over the southern peninsula, rainfall over rest of the country will be normal and range between 77-123 per cent of the Long Period Average of 297mm (1971 – 2020 record), the IMD officials said.
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