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Following the ouster of the Imran Khan-led government in April 2022 through a no-confidence motion engineered by the army and the Opposition, PML-N leader and Nawaz Sharif’s loyal brother Shehbaz Sharif took over as the Prime Minister to lead the coalition government of the Pakistan Democratic Movement. Since then, scores of cases have been registered against Imran Khan and his cadres. He was initially arrested in the Toshakhana case on August 5 and subsequently, in the cypher case. Khan and most of his key leaders are still in jail. Shehbaz stepped down on August 9 to make way for a caretaker government to oversee the next elections.
Subsequent events reveal the path of Nawaz’s return to Pakistan. On September 12, Shehbaz, flanked by Nawaz in London, announced his return to Pakistan on October 21. On September 18, while addressing his party on video, Nawaz claimed that former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and former ISI Chief General Faiz Hameed had conspired with two judges to remove him from office. On September 21, the Election Commission of Pakistan announced that the elections would be held in January 2024. On September 30, the Federal Investigation Agency filed a chargesheet in a special court against Khan in the cypher case and the court indicted him on October 23.
The three-time Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz, returned from a four-year self-imposed exile on October 21, after making “peace” with the Army. Nawaz had to step down as PM in 2017 following his conviction by the Supreme Court in the Before moving to London, Nawaz had served only half of his seven-year sentence in the Al-Azizia corruption case. Over the last four years, he was declared a proclaimed offender in Al-Azizia and Avenfield corruption cases for his absence from the courts. On October 19, the Islamabad High Court granted him protective bail in both cases until October 24, as the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) prosecutor did not oppose his bail petitions. The bail has been extended unopposed. NAB granting bail to Nawaz upon his personal appearance in another case, postponed the hearing to November 20. Television channels have covered welcome celebrations and public rallies of Nawaz in Lahore. The army seems to be helping him with legal battles and rebuilding his public image.
The current scenario raises complex questions about the objectives of Nawaz’s return at this stage, given his ongoing legal battles and ban on holding public office. Has he surrendered to the army and agreed to run, what Pakistani media describes as a hybrid government, with the army wielding real power behind a democratically elected government? Or does he only wish to have himself and his family exonerated in all legal cases and hand over the baton to his heir, Maryam Nawaz? Would it be easier or difficult for Nawaz and his family to get legal reprieve, given that the judiciary-army link has weakened since he was ousted? Did he also factor in the much weaker position of the army, domestically and externally? Did he weigh the onerous task of reviving the economy which may take years? Also, did he consider that the army may not give the next government a free hand vis-a-vis both neighbours — India and Afghanistan?
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At this age, an experienced Nawaz Sharif is not expected to have made a truce with the army without delving deep into such questions. While the coming weeks and months will reveal more, his speech at his first public rally in Lahore partially answers some of these questions. Acutely aware that staying out of touch from public meetings for six long years could make a politician irrelevant, PML-N made an “unusual” effort of mustering big crowds on its home turf — also an attempt to match Khan’s impressive record of holding mega rallies. Nawaz used a mix of stories of personal sacrifices and successes of his Prime Ministerships. Seeped in rhetoric, his repeated reference to Maryam’s sacrifices, including imprisonment, stood out as an informal announcement of her as the heir, in case he doesn’t or is unable to contest elections. Understandably, Nawaz avoided any mention of the grim security situation and the issue of the Taliban supporting the TTP against the Pakistan army. He made no mention of the May 9 events either.
However, in his speech, Nawaz tried to match Khan’s appeal of standing up to big powers, elaborating on how he stood up to US President Bill Clinton by ordering nuclear tests in response to the Pokhran tests by India in 1999. As a shrewd politician, Nawaz spoke of solving the Kashmir issue, but at the same time pointedly hailed people from “Azad” Kashmir in his rally and saluted their flag. This too looked like an effort to match Khan’s stance.
By openly criticising former Generals just as he was preparing to return to Pakistan, Nawaz had already equated his sacking with that of Khan. At the rally, he reminded supporters how he had also served prison terms before his exile. It remains to be seen how much of these efforts would cut into Khan’s popularity. It appears quite clear that Nawaz’s return has been supported by the army, which wants to pit a strong opponent against Khan’s cult-like status in the public, even if Khan himself is not allowed to contest. One additional factor that may have played in favour of Nawaz’s return is his deep bond with China, something the army is most likely more concerned about given that it is a critical resource for investment and bailouts.
The writer is an IPS officer. Views are personal
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