Tropical storms take many more lives than officially recorded, according to a sobering study published today in the journal Nature. It comes as people across the Southeastern US scramble to find loved ones in the wreckage of Hurricane Helene.
Science
The hidden toll taken by tropical storms
The average tropical storm or hurricane leads to the early deaths of between 7,170 and 11,430 people, the researchers estimate. That’s astronomically higher than the average of 24 direct deaths per storm documented in government records spanning more than half a century.
“We were quite stunned. So, if folks are surprised by these results, you know, we were right there, too,” says Rachel Young, a coauthor of the study who is an environmental economist and postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Berkeley.
“We were quite stunned.”
Beyond the dangers of floodwaters and hurricane-force winds, people likely face many more insidious health risks in the aftermath of a storm. That’s what the researchers attempted to capture with this study, in the hopes that it can help officials anticipate those risks and perhaps prevent them in the future.
“Hurricanes and tropical storms have a much greater public health impact than we previously thought,” Young says. “People are at elevated risks of dying after these events for a very, very long time.”
Young and her coauthor were also caught off guard by how long after a storm they found an uptick in deaths — around 15 years. Their study includes data from all tropical cyclones — which includes hurricanes and tropical storms — in the contiguous US between 1930 and 2015. They focused on changes in monthly state mortality rates for two decades following each of the 501 cyclones in that time frame.
Crucially, they estimated the number of excess deaths — a number that shows deaths likely accelerated by the lingering effects of a storm. The paper proposes several ways these storms could have triggered those premature deaths. There’s the heightened physical and mental stress caused by the crisis. There can also be a cascade of added environmental hazards, like chemical releases from damaged industrial facilities. On top of that, storms hit people’s pocketbooks. They might have a harder time paying for healthcare as a result. Disasters tighten government budgets, which also could lead to less funds to spend on public health initiatives. And lastly, big storms can fray social support systems when people are displaced.
In other words, these are indirect ways that a storm can lead to higher mortality rates. That differs from official death tolls for storms that typically only take into consideration immediate deaths in the devastation.
Looking at data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that they used in this study, the researchers found most of the indirect deaths tied to storms listed the causes of death as “other.” It’s a general category that might include sudden infant death syndrome, diabetes, suicide, or other causes. The next most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease, followed by cancer. Taken together, the excess deaths linked to tropical cyclones make up between 3.2 and 5.1 percent of all deaths in the continental US, according to the study.
Some people are more vulnerable than others, the research finds. Across different age groups, infants faced the highest risk of early death. Black populations also faced greater risks than white populations. That coincides with existing healthcare disparities in the US; African Americans experience lower rates of having private health insurance than white Americans, for instance.
Southeastern states, which frequently bear the brunt of Atlantic hurricane season, had the highest proportion of deaths linked to tropical cyclones. Just last week, Hurricane Helene ripped apart communities along its devastating path from Florida to Tennessee. The death toll has already topped 160, and many more people are still missing.
This new research is a reminder that it will take years to recover from the disaster. “Hopefully this sheds a light on the need to help people long after the initial days and weeks of the storm,” Young says.
If there is a silver lining in the study, the data points to how communities can become more resilient. The impact that tropical cyclones had on mortality was actually lower in states that experience more frequent storms. People there have likely minimized risks by adapting to the climate, the study hypothesizes. That adaptability will be even more important as climate change leads to more intense storms that can travel further inland to places that haven’t historically had to deal with these kinds of disasters as much.
“This is slightly more good news in a paper that’s quite gloomy,” Young says. “States are able to adapt, and we actually are seeing that in the data.”
Science
NASA wants SpaceX and Blue Origin to deliver cargo to the moon
The agency wants Elon Musk’s SpaceX to use its Starship cargo lander to deliver a pressurized rover to the Moon “no earlier” than 2032, while Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin will be tasked with delivering a lunar surface habitat no sooner than 2033. Both launches will support NASA’s Artemis missions, which aim to bring humans back to the Moon for the first time in over 50 years.
Both companies are developing human landing systems for Artemis missions — SpaceX for Artemis III and Blue Origin for Artemis V. NASA later asked both companies to develop cargo-hauling variants of those landers, capable of carrying 26,000 to 33,000 pounds of equipment and other materials to the Moon.
NASA says it will issue proposals to SpaceX and Blue Origin at the beginning of next year.
“Having two lunar lander providers with different approaches for crew and cargo landing capability provides mission flexibility while ensuring a regular cadence of Moon landings for continued discovery and scientific opportunity,” Stephen D. Creech, NASA’s assistant deputy associate administrator for the Moon to Mars program, said in the announcement.
Science
Brazil leads new international effort against climate lies
Brazil and the United Nations launched a new international effort to combat disinformation on climate change. They announced the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change during the G20 Leaders’ Summit taking place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
It’s a collaboration between governments and international organizations to boost research on misinformation swirling online and around the globe that they fear could slow action on climate change. There isn’t much information available yet, but they say they’ll fund nonprofit efforts to counter that spread of lies.
“Countries cannot tackle this problem individually,” President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in a press release.
“Countries cannot tackle this problem individually.”
Only Chile, Denmark, France, Morocco, the United Kingdom, and Sweden have joined Brazil in the initiative so far. Countries that make the commitment are expected to contribute to a fund administered by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The initial goal is to get more countries on board and raise $10 to 15 million over the next three years. The money is then supposed to be distributed to nonprofit organizations as grants to support research and public awareness campaigns on climate disinformation.
They haven’t yet named any specific groups they plan to work with; “calls for partnerships” are forthcoming. Some environmental organizations are already working together to study disinformation and push for measures to stop its spread, like the Climate Action Against Disinformation coalition that publishes reports on misinformation trends and advocates for more stringent content moderation.
A webpage for the new global initiative says environmental disinformation is “increasingly spreading through social media, messaging apps, and generative AI.” That has “serious” consequences, it says: “it undermines scientific consensus, obstructs authorities’ ability to respond effectively to the crisis, and threatens the safety of journalists and environmental defenders working on the frontlines.”
FEMA employees faced violent threats on social media in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in the US, for example. Accounts spewing misinformation about the storm and FEMA were also tied to content denying climate change, according to an analysis by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) in October. Posts baselessly accused FEMA of seizing private property and confiscating donations — lies that risked deterring storm survivors from applying for assistance, and that raised fears that FEMA staff might face attacks.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres also voiced his concerns during remarks today with both the G20 summit and a UN conference on climate change currently underway. “We must also take on climate disinformation,” Guterres said. “Our climate is at a breaking point.”
Science
Amazon and SpaceX attack US labor watchdog in court
Amazon and SpaceX are seeking to hamstring the National Labor Relations Board, asking a court to declare its processes for upholding labor law unconstitutional. But judges on a three-person panel appeared skeptical when the companies presented their arguments Monday.
In two separate cases before the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, the two companies argued that the NLRB is unlawfully forcing them to participate in administrative law proceedings over alleged anti-labor actions. The Amazon case centers around whether it’s required to bargain with the union at its JFK 8 fulfillment center on Staten Island, while the SpaceX case involves a charge by former employees who claimed they were fired after being critical of CEO Elon Musk.
A ruling in favor of the companies could undermine the NLRB’s power to enforce protections for workers. It comes just as vocal pro-union President Joe Biden is leaving office and deregulation-friendly President-elect Donald Trump takes over. Trump notably counts Musk among his chief allies after his massive fundraising push. The NLRB is an independent agency with five board members appointed by the president to 5-year terms.
During oral arguments, the judges mostly prodded attorneys on the finer points of the companies’ decisions to appeal, and the timeline of their objections. At one point, Judge James Graves Jr., an Obama appointee, expressed doubt that Amazon had even met the conditions for an appeal — suggesting it should have waited on the ruling from the district court first. Two days after Amazon’s notice of appeal, the district court denied Amazon’s request for a temporary restraining order on its NLRB proceedings.
Both companies are seeking to short-circuit the NLRB’s proceedings with a court order
George W. Bush-appointed Judge Priscilla Richman similarly pressed SpaceX’s counsel Michael Kenneally about why the company rushed to an appeal, rather than letting the case progress in a lower court. Kenneally said SpaceX waited as long as it felt it could to bring its challenge and accused the government of leaning on procedural arguments because it couldn’t defend the NLRB’s constitutionality. Graves appeared skeptical. “That sounds to me about like the argument that, ‘well, procedure doesn’t matter if I win on the merits, so just skip right over procedure,’” he said.
Both companies are seeking to short-circuit the NLRB’s proceedings with a court order, which requires demonstrating this would cause them irreparable harm. But in Amazon’s case, NLRB counsel Tyler Wiese called the company’s deadline for the district court “imaginary,” and said, “merely proceeding through an administrative process is not irreparable harm.”
Amazon and SpaceX both argue that the NLRB’s administrative proceedings are tainted because its board members or administrative law judges are unconstitutionally insulated from removal. They point to Article II of the Constitution, which says the president must “take care that the Laws be faithfully executed,” which they say includes removing officials.
Amazon also says the NLRB is violating the Seventh Amendment, which protects the right to a jury trial in certain civil cases. It argues that the NLRB shouldn’t be allowed to decide on financial remedies related to the case because it would deny the company due process. Cox said the board itself “improperly interfered with the [union] election by exercising its prosecutorial authority,” so failing to stop the proceedings would let the NLRB as as judge and prosecutor.
The NLRB says it feels confident in a 1937 Supreme Court ruling on the constitutionality of the National Labor Relations Act. “It is nothing new for big companies to challenge the authority of the NLRB to enforce workers’ rights so as not to be held accountable for their violations of the National Labor Relations Act,” NLRB General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo said in a statement. “While the current challenges require the NLRB to expend scarce resources defending against them, we’ve seen that the results of these kinds of challenges is ultimately a delay in justice, but that ultimately justice does prevail.”
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