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Firebrand socialist leader George Fernandes contested elections from jail in 1977. He was incarcerated during the Emergency when suddenly Prime Minister Indira Gandhi decided to hold elections. While most of the Opposition leaders were released, not Fernandes. However, that didn’t stop Fernandes, who won from Muzaffarpur in Bihar, without visiting it even once, by a whopping 3 lakh votes.
Amidst the Assembly election heat, if there is one other burning question, it is this: Will the ED arrest Kejriwal? If so, when? What will be the impact? And, if the AAP supremo has to choose a replacement as CM, who would it be? Either of his ministerial colleagues Gopal Rai or Atishi? Or could it lead to President’s rule in the Capital, whose influence goes beyond the boundaries of little Delhi?
Given how the AAP has trumped the Congress in Delhi since it burst onto the political scene 10 years ago, some top Congress leaders may feel pleased about Kejriwal’s discomfiture today. But what happens to the AAP will have a bearing on their own prospects and the showing that the INDIA alliance makes in the 2024 elections.
A fast learner, and now seen as an ustad (master) of realpolitik, Kejriwal is weighing his options. On the one hand, he skipped the ED’s summons to question him in the Delhi liquor policy case, and described it as political vendetta by the BJP. On the other hand, he rushed off to Madhya Pradesh to campaign for his party in the Assembly elections – a campaign that will only help the BJP as the AAP is expected to be a spoiler for the Congress in all the Assembly segments where it has fielded candidates in the tightly fought state.
At all such events in different states, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann is Kejriwal’s constant companion, as much a signal to the people he is addressing of the AAP’s political heft, as to the people back in Punjab that Mann is an equal and is not being remote controlled by Delhi, as alleged by AAP rivals.
Many in Punjab, and outside, believe that Mann could be one of the gainers if Kejriwal is jailed.
As to if and when the Centre will go ahead with it, earlier there was a buzz that Kejriwal may be arrested in January 2024. The timing would have been close enough to the next Lok Sabha polls to help the BJP build a poll narrative against corruption, by making an example of a party whose raison d’etre was fighting graft.
But the ruling BJP’s strategy seems to have undergone a change, with the Supreme Court’s denial of bail to the Delhi CM’s former deputy Manish Sisodia. It was a major setback for the AAP as, after observing that there seemed to be no evidence against Sisodia, it later changed its mind to deny him bail.
Kejriwal’s own squeaky clean image has taken a beating following revelations regarding the Rs 44 crore renovation of the CM’s house in Delhi.
While there have been young parties earlier which have fast-tracked to power, the AAP is unique in many ways. The Asom Gana Parishad emerged out of a students’ movement in Assam in the early 80s, and went on to form a government in the state several times. But, its anti-migrant agenda was imbued essentially with sub-nationalism, and it remained a regional entity.
The AAP, on the other hand, acquired national party status within a matter of 10 years, after capturing Punjab and Delhi and making a space for itself in Goa and Gujarat. One of the states it is now eyeing is Haryana, Kejriwal’s home state. While there have been poll and court setbacks, the party’s welfare agenda of free power and water, and concentration on education and health, has forced other parties to follow suit, and include similar promises in their manifestos.
The AAP has also proved nimble footed, deftly moving from anti-Congress stance to anti-BJP, and adopting soft Hindutva as and when needed, to keep itself relevant. BJP leaders admit the party continues to worry them more than other regional outfits.
So how will a Kejriwal arrest play out on the national stage?
It will give a boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s projection of the Opposition as a coalition of the corrupt, with its top leaders across states under the scanner of Central agencies – including Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav, and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek. It also helps Modi hammer away at the politics of entitlement – one of the BJP’s theme songs for 2024.
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For the Opposition, an arrest would be another proof of the “misuse” of the ED and other agencies by the Modi government — even for leaders who have crossed over to the BJP’s side such as Suvendu Adhikari, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Ajit Pawar have found cases against them put on the backburner.
But what should worry the Opposition is that the issue has little traction at the ground level. Most people are neither exercised by, nor sympathetic towards, Opposition leaders being interrogated or charged. “Agar daana-paani jail ka hai, toh hai (If jail is written in their fate, so be it),” a young Jat Sikh remarked dismissively about the possibility of Kejriwal being jailed. Most voters are jaded when it comes to corruption charges and believe that no one is “doodh ka dhula (innocent)”. They know that people are not going to jail to cleanse the system.
The BJP knows only too well that the big battle will be won not in the country’s courts, but in the war of perceptions. So does Kejriwal. He is hoping that sympathy for him will do the trick. It is not surprising then that Kejriwal says that, if arrested, he would want to run his Cabinet from within Tihar Jail.
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