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Hamas attack and Israel’s agencies: Are intelligence failures inevitable?
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As new information about Hamas’s devastating attack on Israel trickles in, the narrative of the “colossal intelligence failure” is getting amplified even more. Contrary to the earlier reports that Israel’s intelligence agencies failed to detect any activity by or warning from Hamas, new information reveals that Israeli intelligence did pick up a surge in activity on the Gazan militant networks it was monitoring. A New York Times report published last week revealed that an alert was also sent to soldiers guarding the borders, who “either did not act on the intelligence or ignored it”.
The report also reveals that just before the attack, Hamas militants disabled the Israeli surveillance cameras mounted on the border walls and destroyed their remote-controlled machine guns using drones before paragliding into Israeli territory. This operational failure to act on the intelligence inputs exacerbates the sense of “embarrassing intelligence failure” as Israel’s intelligence agencies are touted as one of the finest and probably the most ruthless.
In 2014, Richard Clarke, the National Coordinator for Counter Terrorism at the time of the 9/11 attacks, publicly apologised to the families of victims and said, “Your government failed you, those entrusted to protect you failed you, I failed you.” His public apology was a stark admission of the intelligence failure at every level — collection, analysis, and consumption. So why do even the best intelligence agencies fail? Are intelligence failures inevitable? Is it predominantly the failure at the collection and analysis level where agencies either fail to gather actionable intelligence or are unable to make sense of the information available, or are there other factors that lead to intelligence failures?
Intelligence Failures: Consumption Problem
Intelligence, in its basic sense, mitigates informational asymmetry as the adversary is always incentivised to hide or misrepresent its intentions and capabilities. Hamas successfully hid its intention to launch a large-scale attack in the run-up to and on the day of the attack.
Intelligence failures occur when one or more parts of the intelligence process consisting of collection, analysis, and consumption fail to produce accurate intelligence on an issue or event of national importance. Failures at the collection level can be either errors in the actual collection of intelligence or sometimes due to the requirements set upon the Intelligence Community (IC) by the policymakers. At times, policymakers set unachievable intelligence goals, or their demands for intelligence are unrealistic. The task given to the CIA in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq war was to “confirm that Iraq possessed WMDs” rather than to find out if Iraq had WMDs.
Even when agencies are able to collect accurate information, failures still happen when the analysis produced is either incorrect, biassed, or incomplete. Governments spend billions in the form of satellites, drones, and surveillance equipment for intelligence collection, but all this can be rendered futile if the IC cannot connect the dots. Saddam’s refusal to allow independent UN inspectors into Iraq was interpreted as smoking gun evidence of possessing WMDs. The alternative explanations were neither sought nor found to be necessary.
Though the common perception about intelligence failures is that these happen mainly at the collection or analysis level, empirical evidence shows that most of the failures are at the consumption level, meaning it is the consumers of intelligence, the policymakers, who fail to interpret the intelligence accurately. Scholars have argued that the most crucial mistakes have seldom been made by collectors of raw information, occasionally by professionals who produce finished analyses, but most often by the decision-makers who consume the products of intelligence services. These consumption variations have huge implications for national security and security policy.
Individual decision-makers, like all human beings, come with their own experiences, beliefs, and biases, which are not necessarily drawbacks, but these do play a role in the way they consume information. Almost 50 years ago, General Zeira, the Director of the Israeli Directorate of Military Intelligence (AMAN), believed that an attack by Egypt and Syria was unlikely as he assumed that Egypt would not attack until they solved their air superiority problem and AMAN had logically reached a conclusion that Syria would not attack without Egypt. When in early October of 1973, Israel learnt of the evacuation of women and children from Egyptian cities, his preconceived notions prevented him from interpreting this as preparation for war till Israeli spy Ashraf Marwan informed Zeira that war was imminent in 12 hours.
Similarly, George Bush claimed to have seen Putin’s soul and found him trustworthy when he said, “ I looked the man in the eye…and I could see his soul.” Condoleezza Rice, former US Secretary of State, later admitted that they could never escape the perception that the president had naïvely trusted Putin and then been betrayed.
Are Intelligence Failures Inevitable?
Scholars like Richard Betts and Robert Jervis have long argued that intelligence failures are not only inevitable but even natural because the intelligence agencies, by their very organisational makeup, are set to fail. Besides, politics and psychology exacerbate the vulnerabilities at the organisational level. Parochialised interests and rivalries between competing intelligence organisations make it possible that the intelligence produced by one agency will conflict with or refute what the other produces.
Stove piping (transmitting strictly through hierarchy) is inherent to all intelligence agencies, and this may create situations in which information available to one organisation or part of the same organisation is not available to other relevant stakeholders in the analytical process. The 9/11 Commission Report highlighted these organisational asymmetries. The CIA had information about the presence of two of the hijackers — Khalid al Midhar and Nawaf al Hazimi — on US soil, but they did not share this information with the FBI, which was investigating the presence of al Qaeda operatives.
Groups within organisations may have their own biases, and these biases can get injected into the decision-making process. Without a strong voice of dissent, a group’s bias toward certain interpretations of a given situation may outweigh the objective truth when dissent is habitually stifled. Secretary Rumsfeld and his team carried an anti-Saddam bias from the first Gulf War of 1991. Any contrarian view or assessment was not only rejected but also ignored.
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By favouring information relevant to their expertise, what is called the “organisational expertise hypothesis”, agencies are likely to miss or discount information that they should also consider. Organisations tend to rely more on the intelligence collected through their own channels. Intelligence provided by other sources and agencies is rarely looked at with the same seriousness. Days before the Yom Kippur War in 1973, King Hussien of Jordan apprised Israel of the impending attack by Egypt and Syria. Still, Israeli Intelligence ignored Hussein’s inputs as they did not match their reports or AMAN’s assessment of the war.
Though intelligence reforms focused on organisational refinements and bureaucratic amendments can potentially alleviate the shortcomings, individuals will still remain critical. Thus, as institutional and organisational reforms are possible, it may be almost impossible to reform personalities.
The writer is a senior IPS officer and a PhD scholar at Princeton University. Views expressed are his own
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According to recent reports, Circle to Search, a feature introduced with the Samsung Galaxy S24 series in January 2024, might soon undergo an upgrade. Initially allowing users to copy text from selected areas, it’s now rumored to include the capability to capture and share screenshots of specific screen sections.
This enhanced functionality, observed in the latest version of Circle to Search, enables users to not only copy text but also capture and share screen images. A video shared by a tipster on X showcased this update, revealing new options of Copy and Share upon selecting an area. Even adjustments to the selected region don’t remove these options, ensuring a seamless experience. Users can either copy the image to the clipboard for further editing or share it directly through various apps.
Previously, the visual lookup feature solely facilitated text copying. While Android devices offer a three-finger swipe-down gesture for quick screenshots, it captures the entire screen, necessitating subsequent cropping. This new functionality streamlines the process, allowing users to select and share specific screen sections in just two steps.
Interestingly, Google recently addressed concerns about accidental activations of Circle to Search in a podcast featuring its developers. They acknowledged the issue and assured users of an impending fix. This indicates ongoing efforts to refine the feature for a smoother user experience.
The OnePlus Nord CE 3 has recently undergone another price reduction in India, marking a significant update for potential buyers. Initially introduced to the Indian market in June 2023, this smartphone received its first price adjustment in November of the same year. The base variant, featuring 8GB of RAM and 128GB of internal storage, was notably listed at a price Rs. 2,000 lower than its launch price, signaling OnePlus’s commitment to providing competitive pricing to its customers.
The OnePlus Nord CE 3 is powered by an octa-core Qualcomm Snapdragon chipset and ships with the Android 13-based operating system. It boasts a triple rear camera setup, enhancing its photography capabilities, and supports SuperVOOC charging, ensuring rapid replenishment of its battery. The inclusion of these features positions the Nord CE 3 as a compelling option for smartphone enthusiasts seeking a balance between performance, affordability, and innovation.
The recent unveiling of the OnePlus Nord CE 4 in India marks the continuation of OnePlus’s commitment to delivering cutting-edge technology to its users. Serving as the successor to the Nord CE 3, the Nord CE 4 is expected to build upon the strengths of its predecessor while introducing new enhancements and features to further elevate the user experience.
When considering the revised pricing of the OnePlus Nord CE 3, it’s evident that OnePlus aims to make its devices more accessible to a wider audience. The reduction in price, particularly on platforms like Amazon and the OnePlus India website, presents an opportunity for consumers to acquire a high-quality smartphone at a more affordable rate.
Let’s delve deeper into the specifications and features of the OnePlus Nord CE 3 to understand its capabilities and appeal to potential buyers.
OnePlus Nord CE 3 Price in India (Revised)
The base variant of the OnePlus Nord CE 3, featuring 8GB of RAM and 128GB of internal storage, was initially launched in India at Rs. 26,999. Following its first price cut in November, the price was reduced to Rs. 24,999. Now, the same variant is available on Amazon at Rs. 22,990, representing a Rs. 2,009 reduction from its previous price. Furthermore, customers can benefit from an additional flat Rs. 2,000 instant discount on ICICI and HDFC Bank cards, bringing the effective price down to Rs. 20,990.
On the OnePlus India website, the 8GB + 128GB variant is priced at Rs. 22,999, marking a Rs. 2,000 decrease from the November price of Rs. 24,999. It is worth noting that this discount is exclusively applicable to the 128GB model, as the higher-end 256GB variant is currently listed as out of stock.
OnePlus Nord CE 3 Specifications and Features
Display:
The OnePlus Nord CE 3 boasts a 6.7-inch full-HD+ fluid AMOLED display with a resolution of 1,080 x 2,412 pixels. With a refresh rate of up to 120Hz, users can enjoy smooth and fluid visuals, enhancing their overall viewing experience.
Processor and Performance:
Powered by the Qualcomm Snapdragon 782G SoC, the OnePlus Nord CE 3 delivers robust performance and efficient multitasking capabilities. With up to 12GB of RAM and up to 256GB of onboard storage, users can seamlessly navigate between apps and store their multimedia content with ease.
Operating System:
The smartphone ships with Android 13-based OxygenOS 13.1, providing users with a clean and intuitive user interface coupled with a plethora of customization options. OxygenOS is known for its smooth performance and timely software updates, ensuring that users stay up-to-date with the latest features and security patches.
Camera:
The OnePlus Nord CE 3 features a versatile camera setup, comprising a 50-megapixel primary sensor with optical image stabilization (OIS) and electronic image stabilization (EIS) support. Accompanying this primary sensor is an 8-megapixel sensor with an ultra-wide-angle lens and a 2-megapixel macro shooter, allowing users to capture a wide range of subjects with stunning detail and clarity. On the front, the device houses a 16-megapixel sensor for high-quality selfies and video calls.
Battery and Charging:
Equipped with a robust 5,000mAh battery, the OnePlus Nord CE 3 offers ample battery life to power through a full day of usage. Additionally, the device supports 80W wired SuperVOOC charging, enabling users to quickly replenish the battery and minimize downtime.
Connectivity:
The OnePlus Nord CE 3 supports a comprehensive range of connectivity options, including 5G, 4G LTE, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC, GPS, and USB Type-C. Whether it’s streaming multimedia content, browsing the web, or staying connected with friends and family, users can rely on the Nord CE 3 to deliver seamless connectivity and performance.
Security:
For enhanced security, the OnePlus Nord CE 3 features an in-display fingerprint sensor, allowing users to conveniently unlock their device with a simple touch. This biometric authentication method adds an extra layer of protection to safeguard sensitive data and personal information.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the OnePlus Nord CE 3 offers a compelling combination of performance, affordability, and innovation, making it an attractive choice for smartphone enthusiasts in India. With its recent price reduction and competitive specifications, the Nord CE 3 presents a compelling value proposition for consumers seeking a high-quality smartphone experience without breaking the bank. As OnePlus continues to innovate and introduce new features with each iteration, the Nord CE 3 stands as a testament to the company’s commitment to delivering exceptional devices tailored to the needs of its users.
In its largest market, Bengaluru, ride-hailing company Namma Yatri has expanded its services to include cab-hailing, marking a significant shift from its previous focus on auto rickshaws. Namma Yatri, known for pioneering a daily subscription model as opposed to the commission-based model utilized by competitors like Ola and Uber, had initially concentrated on auto rickshaws in Bengaluru. However, it now features a distinct section on its app dedicated to booking cabs in the city. Additionally, Namma Yatri already provides cab rides in Kochi and Kolkata.
The decision to venture into cab services follows Namma Yatri’s separation from its former parent company, Justpay, and comes on the heels of a reported expansion plan announced on April 1st. The move also aligns with the broader trend observed in the industry, as both Ola and Uber have recently introduced subscription-based plans for auto-rickshaw drivers on their platforms. This strategic shift towards subscription-based models, akin to Namma Yatri’s approach, as well as that of Rapido, highlights a growing preference within the industry for alternative pricing structures beyond traditional booking fees or commissions.
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