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The schedule of elections in five states was announced by the Election Commission on Monday, October 9. That put paid to the speculation that Mr Narendra Modi may seize the opportunity to play the One Nation One Election card (ONOE). I have long held the view that ONOE was a non-starter and, certainly, not feasible in the elections in 2023 or 2024.
Some commentators have portrayed the impending 5-states elections as a test of strength between NDA and I.N.D.I.A. I take a different view. The old NDA no longer exists after the exit of significant political parties such as the JD(U), Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and AIADMK. What is left of the NDA is the BJP and, according to Wikipedia, 34 other parties of which most people cannot name more than one. The NDA is simply another name for BJP!
On the other side, there is I.N.D.I.A., but in the five states that will go to elections in November, the Congress is the party with real stakes. In Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the contest is a straight fight between Congress and BJP. In Telangana, there is a third player, BRS, the ruling party, which claims it is opposed to both Congress and BJP. In Mizoram, it is a four-way contest involving three regional parties and Congress; the BJP is a non-player.
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My view, therefore, is that the forthcoming 5-states elections amount to a test of strength between the BJP and Congress. The BJP was first off the block. It has drawn from its playbook: first to announce candidates, no declared candidate for chief minister, Mr Modi everywhere, multiple Modi rallies, unlimited money and the misuse of investigative agencies to intimidate the Opposition.
On the other side, the Congress had not released any list of candidates by the time the EC announced the schedule. This has been a weakness of the Congress. However, this time, the Congress will go into elections in three major states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and also perhaps Mizoram — with a ‘CM face’, although undeclared officially. Following Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the campaign will be steered by the leaders of the states and the national leadership will play a supportive role.
The one common feature of the 2018 elections in these five states was that the BJP lost in all the states. Today, in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Congress is in the government. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP seized power through defections. In Mizoram and Telangana, a state party is in government. Therefore, there is no uniform situation in the five states and the prospects of each party in each state have to be assessed separately.
I do not wish to make any predictions. Putting together information and various reports, here is a cautious preliminary assessment:
Chhattisgarh: The state has seen three chief ministers, the late Ajit Jogi (2000-2003), Mr Raman Singh (2003-2018) and Mr Bhupesh Baghel (from 2018). There is no reason to fear that anti-incumbency will come into play. Chhattisgarh has become a leading rice producer and its farmers are more prosperous than ever before. Add the numerous welfare schemes implemented by the Baghel government and the surge in tribal pride. Power will shift to the tribals and OBCs, but it is generally believed that the Congress will return to power. Privately, even the BJP does not challenge this conclusion.
Madhya Pradesh: Mr Kamal Nath will not let the people forget that the BJP seized power through defections. Nor do the people seem to have forgotten the treachery of 2020. Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan is an old, but tired, face and the BJP leadership has signaled in many ways that it has lost confidence in Mr Chouhan. As a result, the BJP has lit the fire of ambition in too many hearts including serving Union ministers. The BJP has been in power since December 2003 except for a brief period of 15 months. Indications are that the bell has tolled for a change.
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Rajasthan: The state has a history of alternating party-governments since 1990. The Congress seems to have put its house in order and united under Mr Ashok Gehlot who has implemented an array of welfare schemes. The BJP is in disarray because, as of today, Ms. Vasundhara Raje and her group have been sidelined. This is the state to watch.
Telangana: The state has thrown a surprise by pushing the BJP to a distant third place. The Tukkuguda rally on September 17, 2023 after the CWC meeting was the largest I have seen in many years. More than the size, roughly 40 per cent of the massive gathering was made of young people (15-29 years). There is near unanimity among political observers and journalists that the Congress has regained its place and the contest is between BRS and Congress. Another surprise may be around the corner.
Mizoram: The contest is among regional parties. Congress has a new leader, Mr Lalsawta. BJP is not in the picture. Mr Zoramthanga, chief minister, and his party have cleverly used the Manipur crisis and the migration of Kukis to Mizoram to kindle Kuki-Zomi affinity and pride. The votes will be split and another coalition government seems to be the likely outcome. ‘Never make predictions, especially about the future’ is never more true than when predictions are made about future elections!
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